Survival of the Fittest is by far the hottest card in the Legacy metagame right now, top8ing about every major tournament in the United States and also putting up strong numbers in Europe. There’s a lot of talking about a possible ban when the new Banned and Restricted List will be published on December 20th. Douglas Linn over at Quietspeculation.com published a nice article based on probabilites and price asumptions. Doug is an expert both on the Legacy format and MtG economics, so I won’t argue with him. I’ll just give my two cents, based on some statistical data.
Magiccardmarket.eu
On MKM, over the last 4 weeks, Survival of the fittest has not been sold in too heavy numbers (therefore the graph may seem somewhat accidented), yet the price has been quite constant at about 30 â¬:
Blacklotusproject
When regarding long time price evolution, nothing better than checking out Blacklotusproject. They collect a large amount of data based primarily on eBay sales in the United States. This is how the price of Survival has evolved during the last six months:
As you can see, 6 months ago, Survival was still sitting at 20$ as it was played in Legacy but wasn’t such a powerhorse. As survival got more prominent, the price slightly increased until jumping right to 40 euros at the end of October, when it was starting to dominate the Legacy metagame in the United States. Observing this data closely, you will see however that as of November 2010, the slope of the price evolution has changed and it seems that the price is finally staying at 40$. This maybe due to people being cautious and waiting for the B/R list but it could also mean that this is about as high as the price will go.
Personally, I think that there isn’t much more to come. It’s not like there were no means to beat Survival decks, until now people have rather followed the hype and chose to “join ‘em if you can’t beam ‘em”. So I’m expecting Survival not to increase significantly in price, whether it be banned or not.
Conclusion
Which leaves us with a clear selling advice:
- If you don’t play Survival but want to sell this card, sell it now.
- If you play Survival, you can
- Sell it now, and buy it again if it’s not banned. As the price shouldn’t increase too much, the financial loss won’t be too harsh.
- Keep your playset, and if it should get banned, play one in your EDH and keep the others for 2 years until it’ll be released from the list.
Thanks for reading … and don’t you complain if I’m wrong
Matthias
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